From The New York Times:
When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, he was betting against the West. The West — understood as Europe and the United States — would not have the mettle to save Ukraine, he surely surmised. Neither united nor effective, it had a long record of failure in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Russia’s victory would prove that the West’s golden age was over, freeing Russia to partner with China and other rising countries, asserting itself anew on the world stage.
Mr. Putin’s bet has not paid off. As the war drags on and on, the Kremlin has taken a two-pronged approach to the West. Domestically, the Kremlin has demonized it, encouraging Russians to rally around Mr. Putin in a civilizational battle. Abroad, Russia has sought to divide the West, peeling away the doubters and the dissenters from the pro-Ukraine coalition. In this project, Donald Trump’s election in November was supposed to be a turning point. The West would tear itself apart, leaving Ukraine to Russia.