From the New York Post [caution, tabloid]:
Betting markets and papal forecasters were wildly off in conclave predictions, with only a few gamblers pulling down big bucks on the 1% chance that Chicago-born Cardinal Robert Prevost would become the next pope.
Blockchain-based betting sites Kalshi and Polymarket raked in a whopping $40.4 million in conclave wagers, with most winners scoring on who would walk away a cardinal and very few accurately predicting the 69-year-old Villanova grad would be named pontiff, Forbes reported. Kalshi gave Chicago’s own Pope Leo XIV a 1% chance heading into the conclave, and fewer than 150 holy rollers placed affirmative bets on then-Cardinal Prevost on that site.