1. What are the chances that a Pope Francis–appointed cardinal will win?

The chances are high, both statistically and politically.

Statistical Advantage:

• Of the 133 cardinal electors, 108 were appointed by Pope Francis.
• This means 81% of the electorate were selected by a pontiff known for his progressive, pastoral vision.
• To be elected, a candidate needs two-thirds majority, i.e. at least 89 votes.
• 89 out of 133 is ~66.9%, well within the numerical potential of Francis-appointed cardinals alone—provided they vote cohesively.

Political/Ideological Alignment:

• Many of Francis’s appointees come from non-European regions, and reflect the Pope’s commitment to a global Church, with emphasis on:
  • Mercy over dogma
  • Inclusion of the marginalised
  • Clerical humility
• These cardinals are likely to favour someone who will continue Francis’s reforms, such as Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Matteo Zuppi, or Jean-Claude Hollerich.

Caveat – Internal Divisions:

• While they are Francis appointees, they are not monolithic.
• Some may lean more conservative or centrist, especially from African or Eastern European regions, even if appointed by Francis.
• Nevertheless, the sheer weight of numbers makes it very likely that the next pope will come from his faction or share his theological/pastoral orientation.

 Conclusion: The odds strongly favour a Francis-appointed cardinal winning the papacy.

2. What are the chances that a non–Pope Francis–appointed cardinal will win?

The chances are low, though not zero.

Numerical Deficit:

• Only 25 cardinal electors were not appointed by Francis (from the John Paul II and Benedict XVI eras).
• They represent just ~19% of the conclave.
• Even if these cardinals unite behind a single candidate, they are still far short of the 89-vote threshold.
• They would need to sway at least 64 Francis-appointed cardinals to their side—a highly unlikely outcome.

Scenarios Where It Could Happen:

• If the Francis bloc becomes deeply divided, or if no consensus candidate emerges, a “compromise” figure could arise—potentially one with more traditional or conservative leanings.
• However, the process is designed to eliminate outliers through repeated voting rounds, usually converging on a widely acceptable candidate.
• A non-Francis appointee might only succeed if they are broadly moderate, such as Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who served loyally under Francis but is seen as less progressive.

 Conclusion: A non-Francis appointee winning would require unprecedented levels of division and realignment within the conclave. This is highly improbable under the current circumstances.

3. What are the chances that a liberal, progressive cardinal, with views similar to those of Pope Francis, will win?

The chances are very high, and arguably the most likely outcome.

Indicators:

• Pope Francis deliberately shaped the College of Cardinals to reflect his vision of a Church that is:
  • More inclusive
  • Less Eurocentric
  • Focused on social justice
  • Pastorally engaged with modern challenges
• Most frontrunners (e.g., Tagle, Zuppi, Hollerich) are seen as extensions or evolutions of Francis’s pastoral approach.
• The momentum of Church governance has shifted towards synodality, listening, and decentralisation—hallmarks of Francis’s theology.

Reform Continuity:

• Cardinals typically do not seek dramatic reversals unless there is clear crisis or backlash, neither of which is universally present.
• The majority of electors—appointed by Francis—have participated in and endorsed his synods, priorities, and appointments.
• A return to the highly centralised, doctrinaire style of pre-Francis pontificates would likely be viewed as divisive or regressive.

 Conclusion: The chances that a liberal, progressive cardinal aligned with Pope Francis’s vision will win are very strong, perhaps over 70–80%, based on current configurations and tendencies.

Final Summary: